Victorian State Election 2018: Meet Pascoe Vale Independent Oscar Yildiz!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

Website:  http://www.oscaryildiz.com.au/
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/OscarYildiz4Pascoevale/
Themes: Cost of living, environment, families.  Being local.

With friends like these…
How to Vote Card

Yildiz has preferenced his fellow independents, John Kavanagh and Francesco Timpano, second and third, suggesting a common ground which, as we shall see, is not wholly reciprocated.  He has put Liberal first of all the parties, followed by Labor, the Greens, Animal Justice and the Socialists.

It’s almost a perfect mirror of the Socialist ticket.  Suffice it to say that Mr Yildiz probably does not lean to the left, politically speaking.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Preferences in Pascoe Vale!

So, with the Upper House all done, I thought I’d turn to my local district, Pascoe Vale, and see what’s on the menu.

Our options this year appear to be as follows:

This is a typical People’s Republic of Moreland ballot paper, with a wide selection of left-leaning choices, a handful of independents, and a token Liberal Party candidate who is not going to get very far, poor thing, but has to take one for the team regardless.

I’ll be reviewing our lovely independent candidates shortly, but first, let’s take a quick look at who is preferencing whom among the major parties.

Genevieve Hamilton – Liberal Party

The Liberals know they don’t have a snowflake’s hope in a globally-warmed hell, so they aren’t trying very hard.  But they always run a candidate so that their loyalists have someone to vote for, and they are probably hoping to wrest the two party preferred envelope back from the Greens.  They have preferenced the three independents, Yildiz, Kavanagh and Timpano first, followed by the Animal Justice Party.  Then Labor, the Greens, and last of all the Socialists.  Apparently, they would rather preference someone they consider a little bit nutty ahead of the Labor Party, so that’s fun. It’s been their policy to put the Greens after Labor for a while, because they don’t want the Greens winning seats from Labor on Liberal preferences, so no real surprise there.

Lizzie Blandthorn – Australian Labor Party

The ALP has put the Animal Justice Party second, which is making me wonder if they might do dangerously well.  Surely not well enough to overtake the Greens and the Liberal Party, though?  In third place are the Greens, with just enough separation to show that, no, no, no, there is no Labor/Green coalition!  Socialists are in fourth place, followed by Yildiz, Timpano and Kavanagh.  The Liberal party are at the bottom of the ticket.

Phil Jackson – Australian Greens

The Greens also know they aren’t going to win this one, but they want to come a convincing second and give Labor a run for their money.   They have preferenced  Kavanagh second, followed by the ALP, the Victorian Socialists and the Animal Justice Party.  Yildiz is 6th, Francesco is 7th, and the Liberal candidate is dead last.  This is a bit of a surprise – I really thought they would put the Socialists ahead of Labor, given that Labor is their main competition for this seat.  (My quick scan of their how to vote cards in other regions suggests that they are putting Liberal last most of the time, unless there is a party like the DLP or the Shooters and Fishers, or a really nutty independent that needs the spot.  They also seem to be consistently putting the ALP ahead of the Socialists, which is a surprise.)

Graeme Linsell – Animal Justice Party

The AJP is still bearing a grudge against the Greens, and has therefore put Labor second and the Greens third.  The Socialists are in fourth place, followed by Kavanagh, Yildiz and Timpano.   You know, nobody seems to like Timpano much – it’s not a good sign.  The Liberal Party is last, yet again.

Gerry Beaton – Victorian Socialists

The Socialists have put the Greens candidate second, followed by Labor.  The Animal Justice Party is in 4th, then we have Kavanagh, Yildiz and Timpano.  (Really, nobody likes Timpano – even the Liberal candidate put him third of the three independents.).  The Liberal Party is lucky last, and nobody is surprised by this.

Look, it’s highly likely that Pascoe Vale will become Labor / Green in the two-party preferred, but unless the Greens pull of something astonishing, it’s going to be a safe Labor win.  Nobody except the Socialists and one of the independents (spoiler!) is putting them ahead of Labor, and while we are pretty red in this part of the world, I don’t think we are red enough to elect a Green, so to speak…

As for the Liberal Party, even if they get to the two-party preferred, everyone except for the independents has put them last.  They are not going to get up.

Victorian State Election 2018: Meet Vote 1 Local Jobs!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

localjobs.jpg

Website: https://www.vote1localjobs.com.au/ (warning: insecure page, and I think it might be out of date anyway)
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/vote1localjobs/
Themes: Western Victoria.  Which, since they aren’t running in Western Victoria, is not very useful.  Seriously, I have no idea what they stand for or why they are on the ballot.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

Vote 1 Local Jobs is only running in Northern Metropolitan (lucky me!), and their ticket looks pretty middle of the road.  They preference Fiona Patten’s Reason Party first, followed by Labor, followed by Hudson for Northern Victoria, the Liberal Party, and the Australian Country Party.  The Greens show up at 32-36, which is not a ringing endorsement.  At the food of the ticket we have the Liberal Democrats, the Australian Liberty Alliance, the Democratic Labour Party, the Victorian Socialists, and last of all, the Animal Justice Party.

This looks to me like a party that is somewhat left of centre, but a bit scared of anyone who is further to the left than they are.  Putting the Liberals and the Country Party up so high suggests that they are not averse to more right-wing parties.  Frankly, in this electorate I doubt their votes are going to get much further than the ALP, so what they do after that may not matter very much.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet the Voluntary Euthanasia Party!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

vep

Website: https://www.vep.org.au/vep_vic
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/VoluntaryEuthanasiaParty/
Themes: Making sure voluntary euthanasia becomes legal.  That is literally their sole policy.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

Fiona Patten’s Reason Party and the Animal Justice Party are almost always the first two parties on the ticket, usually in that order.  Chawla and Lee make it into second place in South Eastern Metro, which is pleasing.  Sustainable Australia is usually in the top five, and Hinch and the LDP are in the top five about half the time.  The Socialists and Transport matters show up in the top five occasionally.

The Greens and Labor always show up in the top half of the ticket, with the Greens usually ranked higher than Labor.  The Liberals are usually towards the bottom of the ticket, and sometimes ranked backwards, for added animus.

At the foot of the ticket, we always have the Democratic Labour Party and the Australian Liberty Alliance, with the occasional independent.  We also always have some combination of the Australian Country Party, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Aussie Battlers and the Liberal Party making up the remaining three slots at the bottom of the ballot.

Essentially, the progressive and libertarian parties are favoured here, with the most conservative parties and the right wing crazies showing up in last place.  There are definitely worse tickets out there.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet the Victorian Socialists!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

socialists.jpg

Website: https://www.victoriansocialists.org.au
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/vicsocialists/
Themes: Socialism. Workers.  People before Corporations.  Unions.  Equality.  The environment.  The evils of capitalism.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

The group voting tickets of Australia’s various Socialist parties are always such a reliable barometer of left to right politics, and the Victorian Socalists are no exception.  At the top of our ticket, we always have the Greens, the Animal Justice Party, Labor, Fiona Patten’s Reason Party and the Voluntary Euthanasia Party.  The order various slightly, but the Greens are almost always first, and the VEP are always fifth, with the others in between.

At the foot of the ticket, we have the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Australian Country Party, and the Australian Liberty Alliance.  All the independents, grouped or otherwise, are dumped wholesale at the bottom of the ticket – the Socialists were clearly too busy preparing for the revolution to read up on them.

I’m interested to note that the Socialists seem to share my suspicions about the Australian Country Party, putting them even lower than the LDP and the DLP.   Incidentally, I’m pretty sure this one is a real ticket and not a Druery special – it’s pretty consistent across the  board, and matches what I expect from the Socialists.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet Kathy Majdlik!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

Website: https://www.melton.vic.gov.au/Council/About-Council/Councillors/Cr-Kathy-Majdlik
Themes: Serving the community, disability services.  Somewhat conservative.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

As an ungrouped independent, Majdlik does not get a group voting ticket, but it’s always interesting to see where the independents are placed by other parties.

Unfortunately, we don’t get much of use here.  Majdlik is usually grouped with her fellow Ungrouped independent somewhere toward the bottom of the ticket, though Hinch and the ALP rank both the independents fairly highly, with Hinch putting Majdlik at 13th and the ALP putting her at 14th.

Only the Greens and the Australian Liberty Alliance bother to place the two independents separately on their ticket, and in both cases, this placement does not favour Majdlik.  The Greens put her in the middle of her ticket, with Grima quite high; and the ALA put her dead last, with Grima in the lower third of the ticket.  I suspect the Greens have put her in the ‘don’t know / don’t care’ basket, while deciding that they actively do like Grima; the ALA have almost certainly done the opposite, putting Grima on the ticket wherever, and putting the woman with the foreign-sounding name at the very end of the ticket…

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet Diana Grima

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/diana.hogg.79
Themes: Not taking the Western Suburbs for granted! Mental health, transport, infrastructure, petrol prices, environment.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

As an ungrouped independent, Grima does not get a group voting ticket, but it’s always interesting to see where the independents are placed by other parties.

The Greens put Grima at 10th on their ticket, directly after the Victorian Socialists and the Animal Justice.  This is clearly not a random choice, since fellow ungrouped independent Kathy Majdlik is only at 26th.

Hinch and the ALP put Grima at 14th and 15th, respectively (directly after Majdlik in both cases).

Most other parties put them low down the ballot, but it’s worth noting that the Australian Liberty Alliance makes a point of distinguishing between the two, putting Grima at 32, well ahead of Majdlik at 48.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet Transport Matters!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

transport

Website: https://www.transportmatters.org.au/
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/TMPVic/
Themes: Taxi lobby group, but fairly interested in public transport and pro-electric cars and hybrids.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

This ticket looks like a Druery special, with 12 different parties appearing in the top five, ranging from the Australian Liberty Alliance and the Batty Battlers to Animal Justice and Health Australia. LDP, the Sustainable Australia, Shooters and Fishers and Hinch’s Justice Party. I really can’t see any rhyme or reason in this, ideologically speaking, especially as some of these parties also appear in the bottom five.

The one thing that is absolutely consistent on Transport Matters’ ticket is that Labor is always last, for reasons that will quickly become evident, unless there are ungrouped independents around. The Liberals and the Greens are always right before Labor, with the Liberals usually, but not always, higher than the Greens.  The other most frequent flyer at the bottom of this ticket is Fiona Patten’s Reason Party.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet the Sustainable Australia Party!

I don’t have time to read all of this!
The Basics

sustainable

Website: https://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au/vic
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/VoteSustainable/
Themes: Overpopulation, sustainability, the environment, jobs, anti-immigration.

With friends like these…
The Group Voting Ticket

This is another confusing ticket, probably brought to you by Glenn Druery.  The top of the ticket favours the Battlers, Transport Australia and Hinch’s Justice Party, but there are a lot of frequent flyers here, and about all you can say for it is that at least the Australian Liberty Alliance is never in the top five.

The foot of their ticket is always reserved for the three major parties, followed by the Victorian Socialists and the Democratic Labour Party.  Of the three majors, Labor and the Greens alternate in first place, and Liberal is always last.  Where there are ungrouped independents, these are always last of all.

I will note that on both their website and their Facebook they are encouraging their voters to direct their own preferences, and advocate an end to group voting tickets, so it will be interesting to see how many of their voters actually do vote above the line.  I have to say, while I have always enjoyed using group voting tickets to get an insight into voting blocs, this time round, it’s been less than useful, so I am sadly inclined to agree with them.  (Thanks, Glenn Druery, for ruining my fun.  Don’t you understand that the best part of above the line voting is playing Upper House Roulette?  Rigging the wheel is just not fair…)

Of course, they then say of their own ticket that because of the way the major parties game the system, they need to game it too, in order to ensure fairness:

We need to end ‘business as usual’ major party politics, even if it means some less than ideal minor parties are preferenced before the major parties. 

So there’s that.

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Victorian State Election 2018: Meet the Aussie Battlers Part 2-3 – now with added xenophobia and a bait-and-switch

battlers

So remember how last week I wrote about the Aussie Battlers and really couldn’t get a read on them, because on the one hand, they had an alarming number of Australian flags all over the place, and a party leader who was so fair dinkum that he was waltzing not just with Matilda, but also with the jumbuck and probably the squatter and the billabong too – and on the other hand, they had all sorts of well-meaning, but poorly-written and somewhat misguided policies about homelessness?

Well, sometime in the last week, they redesigned their whole website, removed almost all the Australian flags, got rid of all their policies, and wrote new ones. Which are terrible.

And I was about to go and read them and tell you all about them, but guess what?  They’ve changed their policies again since last night – changed them completely, as far as I can tell.  Unfortunately, I only glanced at them briefly, planning to tackle them today.  Equally unfortunately, this all happened too fast for the Wayback machine to archive them.  But fortunately for us, the Age did a piece on them on Thursday, when the second round of policies were still in place, so you don’t just have to take my word for it that they were there.  Also, I did find one screenshot of one of their policies on Twitter.

For those who find that writing too small to read comfortably, it says:

Immigrants: Violent crimes, multiple crimes, no age restriction. One-way ticket to where you came from. Any further offence from your immediate family, and the family gets a one-way ticket.  The parents understanding this risk will soon rein in their wayward kids!

Incidentally, if you think that this is maybe a little racist but contains the seeds of a good idea, consider how that’s going to pan out for anyone reporting domestic violence.  Or how helpful this kind of legislation is for for child abusers: ‘You’d better keep this a secret, or it will be your fault if we all get sent back…’

The Age also reported that

Only 30 per cent of students at public schools could come from “non-English speaking backgrounds” in a bid to “eliminate educational deficits generated by lack of proficiency in English language”.

Also, they described the Safe Schools Program as ‘pro-pedophilia’ and ‘grooming’.

So what does the current suite of policies look like?

Basically sane, if slightly to the right of centre. I’m honestly not sure what value there is in analysing them, since the most generous possible interpretation of this party is that it is deeply confused and can’t make up its mind about its policies from one day to the next.  There is no reason to believe that these policies will still be the same tomorrow or on election day, or that any elected representatives will follow them if they are.

And frankly, I’m not inclined to be generous.  This looks to me like a bait-and-switch.  Draw people in (and potentially recruit people to help the party get above-the-line representation) by looking harmless, then show their true colours, then get worried about the backlash and change again?  This does not look like a party with integrity, frankly.

But just in case you want to know what they stand for this weekend, there are seven policies.

On child abuse – they are concerned about institutional child sex trafficking, want mandatory prison for child rape, whistle-blower protection for victims, and a public child sex offender register.  Safe Schools is no longer mentioned.

On country transport – this hasn’t changed materially from their first policy.  They want more of it.

On depression – banks need to have counsellors on staff ‘to share the file with the collections department if the person in hardship displays symptoms of depression or self harm and advised they are experiences mental health difficulties.’.  And they want care plans not to have capped appointments.

On environment – they want to protect the environment, have more humane farming methods, reduce pollution, etc.

On healthier foods more affordable – they want more humane farming methods, free range eggs, and no more rapid growth hormone.

On Our firearms regulations are ok – our firearms regulations are ok.

On VEAC must be stopped – they want to keep state forests open to the public.  And they are into recreational fossicking, which I think they stole from the Country Party.  This is their longest policy, if you care.  I don’t, because I don’t believe anything they say any more.

Look, at this point, I can’t think of any reason why you would vote for this mob.  They clearly have no consistent policy on anything (except possibly shuttle buses for country towns, so I guess if that’s your pet issue, go for it?).  Walter Mikac has done some admirable work on gun control and on the Alannah and Madeline Foundation, and might deserve your vote on but I have no idea what he is thinking associating himself with this rubbish.

Frankly, at this point the Aussie Battlers look as crooked as hell. I don’t generally say outright that you shouldn’t vote for someone, but seriously, don’t vote for this lot.  You don’t know where they’ve been.  Or where they will go next.

PS – and if you do happen to have screenshots of what they were doing earlier this week, please share them.  I’d really like to know what they were up to before they got spooked by the media attention.